UAH-Space Weather Service

The UAH-Space Weather Service (UAH-SWS) has been developed based on the scientific models published in international journals by researchers of the University of Alcala. It offers a warning of severe geomagnetic disturbances. The UAH-Space Weather Service (UAH-SWS) has been developed based on the scientific models published in international journals by researchers of the UAH. It is a double service:
  1. it offers a warning of severe geomagnetic disturbances; and
  2. it provides an estimation of the time remaining for the magnetosphere to recover quiet time conditions.

The warning from UAH-SWS consist in a δ function (true/false): 'true' (red) when a ΔDst larger than 50 nT in an hour is expected, 'false' (green) other ways. The warning code is written in IDL based on the model by E. Saiz, C. Cid and Y. Cerrato (2008). There is only one input for the warning code: interplanetary magnetic field z-GSM component, which is downloaded automatically via ftp from NOAA. The UAH-Space Weather Services server connects to NOAA server every minute and then run the code again. The main success of the UAH-SWS is not only the accuracy in the forecasting process, but also science below the code, which is a great improvement in the task of understanding the Sun-Earth connection: variations in Bz IMF are related to large geomagnetic disturbances (C. Cid, E. Saiz, and Y. Cerrato, 2008).

About the service related to prediction of the magnetosphere recovery, it provides a graph with the theoretical expectations from the hyperbolic model by Aguado, J., C. Cid, E. Saiz, and Y. Cerrato (2010) as soon as Dst index from Kyoto is below -100 nT. The code updates the graph every half an hour, according to the updates of Dst index and theoretical expectations are computed until 96 hours after the peak value on the index.

References

  • Saiz, E, Cid, C, Cerrato, Y, Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data, Ann. Geophys., 26, 3989-3998, 2008. (pdf)
  • Cid, C., E. Saiz, and Y. Cerrato (2008), Comment on Interplanetary conditions leading to superintense geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-250 nT) during solar cycle 23 by E. Echer et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21107, doi:10.1029/2008GL034731.
  • Aguado, J., C. Cid, E. Saiz, and Y. Cerrato (2010), Hyperbolic decay of the Dst Index during the recovery phase of intense geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A07220, doi:10.1029/2009JA014658.

More information

If you are interested in obtaining more information, please contact Prof. Consuelo Cid Tortuero